If you live in Kerala, you know the monsoon dictates daily life, but figuring out what a yellow alert or orange warning from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) means can be confusing. This guide breaks down the latest official forecasts, explains the alert system, and shows how to read KSDMA data, starting with the bulletin issued at 1:00 PM on 12 July 2026.

4 related posts

Average annual rainfall in Kerala: 3350 mm · Average maximum temperature: 37 °C · Average minimum temperature: 17 °C · July rainfall forecast: Below normal (El Niño effect) · Active warnings (13/07/2026): Orange & Yellow alerts

Quick snapshot

1Confirmed facts
2What’s unclear
  • Exact future rainfall amounts beyond 5-day forecasts (KSDMA bulletins).
  • Duration and intensity of El Niño’s impact on the monsoon (The Hindu).
3Timeline signal
  • 30 June 2026: El Niño continues; below-normal July rainfall forecast (KSDMA).
  • 13 July 2026: KSDMA issues 5-day rainfall forecast with Orange & Yellow alerts (KSDMA bulletin).
4What’s next
  • Watch for IMD’s next 5-day monsoon update (IMD press release).
  • District-level alerts may escalate if heavy rainfall (≥12 cm/24h) materialises (The Hindu). (IMD press release)
The upshot

Kerala’s monsoon is running below normal because of El Niño, but short bursts of very heavy rain (up to 20 cm in 24 hours) can still trigger flash floods. Residents in orange-alert districts should check drainage and avoid low-lying areas.

The table below provides a quick reference for Kerala’s climate averages and current alert status.

Key climate facts at a glance
Attribute Value
Average annual rainfall (Kerala) 3350 mm
Average maximum temperature 37 °C
Average minimum temperature 17 °C
Current alert level Orange, Yellow alert
Primary weather authority KSDMA / India Meteorological Department

What is today’s weather in Kerala?

Current temperature and rainfall

As of 13 July 2026, Kerala is experiencing a mix of cloudy skies and intermittent rain. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued a press release on 9 July warning of very heavy rainfall — 7 cm to 11 cm in 24 hours, with isolated spots seeing 12 cm to 20 cm (IMD press release). The Kerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA) publishes a 5-day rainfall forecast; the latest bulletin was issued at 1:00 PM on 12 July 2026 (KSDMA rainfall page).

Thiruvananthapuram city weather

Thiruvananthapuram, the state capital, is under a yellow alert for the current period. The city’s coastal location means it experiences squally winds — IMD reported speeds of 45 kmph to 55 kmph, gusting to 65 kmph, along the Kerala coast in a late-May 2024 bulletin (The Hindu).

Kasaragod district weather features

Kasaragod, the northernmost district, shares a similar climate pattern: average annual rainfall of 3350 mm and temperatures ranging from 17 °C to 37 °C (KSDMA data). The district is part of the alert zone for the current monsoon season.

Bottom line: Kerala is seeing below-normal July rainfall because of El Niño, but short-duration heavy rain (up to 20 cm) can still occur. Check KSDMA’s 5-day forecast before planning outdoor activities.
What to watch

If you’re in an orange-alert district, the risk of localised flooding rises sharply when rainfall exceeds 12 cm in 24 hours. The IMD’s red alert (≥20 cm) triggers emergency response — know your evacuation route.

The pattern: even with a below-normal monsoon, short bursts of heavy rain can cause flash floods, so staying informed is crucial.

What is a weather warning?

IMD alerts: Yellow, Orange, Red

The India Meteorological Department uses a four-colour scale to communicate danger. A yellow alert means “be aware” — rainfall of 6–11 cm in 24 hours. An orange alert signals “be prepared” — 12–20 cm. A red alert means “take action” — more than 20 cm in 24 hours (The Hindu).

El Niño effect and July rainfall deficit

El Niño conditions are suppressing monsoon rainfall across Kerala. The IMD forecast for July 2026 indicates below-normal precipitation, consistent with the pattern seen in previous El Niño years (The Hindu).

How to interpret warnings

When you see an orange alert for your district, it means heavy rainfall is likely and could cause flash floods or landslides. The KSDMA advises staying updated via its 5-day forecast bulletin (KSDMA bulletins).

The trade-off: Warnings are based on probabilistic models. A yellow alert doesn’t guarantee rain, but it signals that conditions are favourable for heavy showers.

What is tomorrow’s weather forecast?

IMD-KSEOC-KSDMA 5-day forecast

The KSDMA’s 5-day rainfall forecast, issued at 1:00 PM on 13 July 2026, shows moderate to heavy rain for central and northern districts. The bulletin includes 24-hour rainfall totals from 8:30 AM the previous day (KSDMA rainfall page).

District-level rainfall probability

Orange-alert districts (e.g., Ernakulam, Thrissur, Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad) face a higher chance of seeing 12–20 cm of rain. Yellow-alert districts (the remaining 11) should expect 6–11 cm (The Hindu).

Where to view the forecast

You can access the latest forecast on the KSDMA rainfall page and the IMD’s Thiruvananthapuram Met Centre website.

Bottom line: Tomorrow’s rain will be concentrated in orange-alert districts. If you’re in Malappuram or Kozhikode, prepare for possible localised flooding.

The implication: residents in orange-alert districts should prepare for possible localised flooding.

What is the weather in Ireland?

General climate of Ireland

Ireland has a temperate maritime climate — mild winters, cool summers, and frequent rain year-round. Average temperatures range from 4 °C to 15 °C, and annual rainfall varies from 750 mm in the east to over 1,200 mm in the west (Met Éireann (Ireland’s national meteorological service)).

Dublin weather characteristics

Dublin, on the east coast, receives about 750 mm of rain annually, with January being the wettest month. The average temperature in July is around 15 °C (Met Éireann).

Why this matters: For readers comparing Kerala’s tropical monsoon with Ireland’s gentle drizzle, the key difference is intensity — Kerala’s rainfall is concentrated in a few months, while Ireland’s is spread thinly across the year.

What is rainy weather?

Types of rain and weather phenomena

Rainfall is classified by intensity: light (<2.5 mm/h), moderate (2.5–7.6 mm/h), and heavy (>7.6 mm/h). Kerala experiences orographic rain — moist air from the Arabian Sea rises over the Western Ghats, cooling and releasing heavy precipitation (Wikipedia – Climate of Kerala).

Kerala’s rainfall patterns

Kerala receives 3350 mm of rain annually, mostly during the southwest monsoon (June–September) and the northeast monsoon (October–November). The state’s unique geography makes it one of the wettest regions in India (KSDMA rainfall data).

Bottom line: Rainy weather in Kerala is high-intensity and seasonal. The key takeaway: always check the 5-day forecast during monsoon months, because heavy rain can develop quickly.

The catch: high-intensity seasonal rain means that the monsoon brings both life-giving water and flood risks.

Timeline signal

  • – El Niño effect continues; below-normal July rainfall forecast (KSDMA).
  • – IMD issues press release warning of very heavy rainfall (12–20 cm) in isolated places (IMD press release).
  • – KSDMA publishes 5-day rainfall forecast with Orange and Yellow alerts (KSDMA bulletin).

The pattern: alerts have escalated from July 9 to July 13, indicating a period of active monsoon rainfall.

What we know vs. what’s uncertain

Confirmed facts

  • Kerala’s average annual rainfall is 3350 mm (KSDMA).
  • Temperature range: 17 °C to 37 °C (KSDMA).
  • El Niño conditions are active (The Hindu).
  • Orange alerts were issued for several districts in late May 2024 and again in July 2026 (The Hindu).

What’s unclear

  • Exact future rainfall amounts beyond the 5-day window (KSDMA).
  • Duration and intensity of El Niño’s suppression of monsoon (The Hindu).

The uncertainty underscores the need to rely on daily updates rather than long-range forecasts.

Expert perspectives

“El Niño conditions continue over the state; July month also likely to receive below-normal rainfall.”

— India Meteorological Department (IMD) via The Hindu

“The 5-day rainfall forecast bulletin issued at 01:00 PM on 12/07/2026 shows the rainfall probability for the next 5 days.”

— Kerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA rainfall page)

These expert statements confirm that El Niño is the dominant factor in this year’s monsoon.

For residents of Kerala’s orange-alert districts, the choice is clear: stay informed with KSDMA’s daily bulletins, secure loose objects, and avoid travel during heavy downpours — or risk being caught in a flash flood that develops within hours.

Related reading: New Zealand Weather Cold Snap: March 2026 Forecast

Additional sources

timesofindia.indiatimes.com, english.mathrubhumi.com, timesofindia.indiatimes.com, newindianexpress.com, thehindu.com, facebook.com, timesofindia.indiatimes.com, thehindu.com, mausam.imd.gov.in

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Frequently asked questions

How accurate are weather forecasts for Kerala?

IMD’s 5-day forecasts have high accuracy for broad patterns, but pinpointing exact rainfall amounts at a district level remains challenging. Always check the latest bulletin for updates (KSDMA).

Where can I get Kerala weather information?

Official sources: KSDMA rainfall page, IMD Met Centre Thiruvananthapuram, and the Times of India or The Hindu for news alerts.

How does climate change affect agriculture in Kerala?

Erratic monsoon patterns, including delayed onset and heavy downpours, can damage crops. The recent El Niño-related deficit is a concern for paddy and plantation farmers (The Hindu).

How is Ireland’s weather different from Kerala’s?

Ireland has a temperate maritime climate with mild temperatures and evenly distributed rain. Kerala’s tropical monsoon brings intense seasonal rainfall. Ireland’s annual rainfall is 750–1,200 mm, while Kerala gets 3350 mm (Met Éireann).

When are weather warnings issued?

IMD issues alerts 24–48 hours before expected heavy rainfall. Orange and red alerts are updated daily during monsoon season (KSDMA).

What is the difference between rainy weather and other weather types?

Rainy weather is defined by precipitation. Other types include clear (sunny), cloudy, windy, and stormy. Kerala’s rainy season is the southwest monsoon.

How does El Niño affect Kerala’s rainfall?

El Niño typically suppresses monsoon rainfall over India, including Kerala, leading to below-normal July and August precipitation (The Hindu).

The key takeaway: official sources provide the most reliable weather information for Kerala.